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TECHNICAL INDICATORS · 13 / 24 — "OBV DIVERGING FROM PRICE, SO A REVERSAL IS COMING"
TECHNICAL INDICATORS · 13 / 24 · SELF-PACED · ~12 MIN READ

ON-BALANCE
VOLUME

A RUNNING TALLY OF WHO'S SHOWING UP

A single cumulative line, adding a full day's volume on an up close and subtracting it on a down close — a divergence from price is a lead worth investigating, not a verdict.

Volume precedes price.
— JOSEPH GRANVILLE
SCROLL
01 — HISTORY

GRANVILLE'S
SIMPLE TALLY

A NEW BOOK, A NEW VOLUME TOOL

Joseph Granville introduced OBV in his 1963 book, arguing that volume flow often shifts before price does.

1963
→ "NEW KEY TO STOCK MARKET PROFITS"
SOON AFTER
→ "SMART MONEY" ACCUMULATION STORIES
A NARRATIVE ABOUT HIDDEN BUYING

OBV became linked to "smart money" quietly accumulating shares before a public price move — a popular but oversimplified story.

DIVERGENCE BECOMES THE HEADLINE USE

Traders leaned hard on price/OBV divergence as an automatic reversal call, inheriting the same overconfidence seen with RSI and stochastic divergence.

DECADES OF USE
→ THE SAME DIVERGENCE OVERCONFIDENCE
TODAY
→ ONE PIECE OF CONFIRMATION, NOT A TRIGGER
A CONFIRMATION TOOL, PAIRED WITH PRICE

Careful use today treats OBV divergence as one input demanding confirmation, exactly like RSI or stochastic divergence.

02 — THREE PILLARS

A LEAD WORTH
CHECKING, NOT A VERDICT

PILLAR 01
±
THE ANATOMY
ADD THE DAY'S VOLUME UP, SUBTRACT IT DOWN

On an up-close day, the entire day's volume adds to the running total; on a down-close day, it subtracts — nothing but that running sum.

BEGINNER TRAP — reading the absolute OBV number itself. Only its slope and shape relative to price matter, not its raw level.
↗ SEE IT LIVE ON CLEAREX
UP · DOWN · UP A RUNNING SUM, VOLUME IN OR OUT SIMPLEST POSSIBLE CUMULATIVE RULE
PILLAR 02
DIVERGENCE IS A LEAD, NOT A VERDICT
A MISMATCH DESERVES A CLOSER LOOK, NOT A TRADE

When price makes a new high while OBV makes a lower high, that's a genuine flag — but exactly like RSI divergence, it needs price itself to confirm before it means anything actionable.

BEGINNER TRAP — shorting the instant OBV diverges. Wait for price to actually confirm the divergence before acting.
↗ SEE IT LIVE ON CLEAREX
PRICE HIGHER, OBV LOWER — A FLAG, NOT A TRADE WAIT FOR PRICE TO CONFIRM
PILLAR 03
CONFIRMING A TREND
RISING TOGETHER MEANS GENUINE PARTICIPATION

PLAIN: when price and OBV climb together, that's real participation behind the move — its most reliable, if less exciting, job.

OBV's most reliable job is confirming a trend already in placeprice and OBV climbing together describes genuine, volume-backed participation.

PRO: a price breakout on a new high with OBV also making a new high is a meaningfully stronger confirmation than the same breakout with OBV lagging behind.

BEGINNER TRAP — only ever looking for divergence and ignoring OBV's more common, quieter job of simply confirming a healthy trend.
↗ SEE IT LIVE ON CLEAREX
BOTH CLIMBING — GENUINE PARTICIPATION OBV'S QUIETER, MORE COMMON JOB
03 — REFERENCE · THE FAMILY

VOLUME-FLOW TOOLS,
A FEW WAYS

OBV
Full day's volume, added or subtracted by close direction.
VOLUME INDICATOR (COUSIN)
Raw daily volume, no cumulative running total — see a later lesson.
MFI (COUSIN)
Volume-weighted RSI, blending price and volume — see a later lesson.
THE UNCONFIRMED DIVERGENCE
An OBV/price mismatch traded before price itself confirms it.
04 — THE RECORD · WITH DATES

WHERE THE FLOW
CONFIRMED THE MOVE

2020.10–2021.03
BTC · OBV CONFIRMED THE RALLY STEP FOR STEP
A GENUINE, PARTICIPATION-BACKED UPTREND

Through that entire rally, OBV made new highs right alongside pricegenuine confirmation, not divergence, throughout.

BOTH CLIMBING TOGETHER, NEW HIGHS EACH BTCUSD · OCT 2020–MAR 2021
2021.04
BTC · OBV DIVERGED, THEN PRICE CONFIRMED
A FLAG, FOLLOWED BY REAL CONFIRMATION

Near that cycle top, OBV printed a lower high while price printed a higher one — and only once price itself rolled over did the warning genuinely pay off.

PRICE UP, OBV DOWN — THEN A ROLLOVER BTCUSD · APR 2021
05 — THE PRACTICE LAB · THREE QUESTIONS

THE THREE-STEP
SYSTEM

USE IT TO CONFIRM, NOT PREDICT
A trend with OBV agreeing is its most common, most reliable use.
TREAT DIVERGENCE AS A LEAD
Investigate it further; never trade the divergence in isolation.
WAIT FOR PRICE TO CONFIRM
Only act once price itself shows the same shift OBV hinted at.
→ A LEAD IS NOT A VERDICT — PRICE STILL HAS TO SHOW UP
06 — READING DRILLS

READ THE
FLOW

SCORE: 0 / 3
DRILL 01

Price makes a new high while OBV makes a clearly lower high. A trader shorts the very next candle. Sound?

? DIVERGENCE APPEARS → ?
DRILL 02

Price is climbing steadily and OBV is climbing right alongside it, making new highs together. What does this tell a trader?

? BOTH CLIMBING TOGETHER → ?
DRILL 03
±

A trader compares OBV's raw number today to its raw number a year ago and concludes something meaningful from the difference. Reasonable?

? COMPARING RAW LEVELS → ?
07 — LIVE READ · PRICE AND OBV, TICK BY TICK

INSIDE THE
VOLUME FLOW

Price above, OBV below, watched tick by tick on the left — and the mark it leaves in the ledger on the right. A confirmed uptrend, a confirmed divergence with real follow-through — and an unconfirmed divergence that led nowhere.

FORMATION:
01 — BOTH BEGIN CLIMBING
Price and OBV start rising together from the base.
02 — A NEW HIGH, TOGETHER
Both make a new high at essentially the same time.
03 — ANOTHER NEW HIGH, TOGETHER
The pattern repeats — no sign of a mismatch anywhere.
04 — THE RECORD
A genuinely confirmed uptrend — volume backed every leg of the move.
THE RECORD EVERY NEW HIGH, VOLUME-CONFIRMED A GENUINELY CONFIRMED UPTREND SCHEMATIC — PRICE (TOP) VS. OBV (BOTTOM) · AUTO-LOOP
08 — ACTIVE DRILL · CONFIRMED OR NOT?

HAS PRICE CONFIRMED?

An OBV divergence has appeared. Judge whether price has genuinely confirmed it yet — then call it: act on it now, or keep waiting.

CALLED 0 · WRONG 0
A divergence appears. Has price itself confirmed it yet?
Look for price itself actually turning, not just the OBV mismatch.
09 — DISCIPLINE · CONFIRM, THEN ACT

A LEAD DEMANDS
ITS OWN CONFIRMATION

PLAIN: use OBV mostly to confirm a trend already happening. If it diverges, treat that as a reason to watch more closely, not to trade immediately.

The classic error is trading an OBV divergence as if it were a complete signal on its own. The discipline is mechanical: use OBV first to confirm trends already in motion, then treat any divergence purely as a lead requiring price's own confirmation before acting.

PRO: some traders track OBV's own short moving average, watching for OBV to cross that average as an earlier, if noisier, hint of a shift than waiting purely for price.

READING IT AS CONFIRMATION FIRST?
TREATING DIVERGENCE AS A LEAD?
WAITING FOR PRICE TO CONFIRM?
→ VOLUME LEADS; PRICE STILL HAS TO SHOW UP
A LEAD, THEN PRICE'S OWN CONFIRMATION
10 — LEGACY

A TALLY, NOT
A CRYSTAL BALL

Granville's tally endures because it's a genuinely simple, honest measure of participation. Let it confirm what price is already doing, and treat any disagreement as a lead worth chasing down — never a verdict on its own.

Volume precedes price.
— JOSEPH GRANVILLE
ON-BALANCE VOLUME · GRANVILLE 1963 · VOLUME PRECEDES PRICE · BTCUSD · SPX · TECHNICAL INDICATORS 13 / 24 · ON-BALANCE VOLUME · GRANVILLE 1963 · VOLUME PRECEDES PRICE · BTCUSD · SPX · TECHNICAL INDICATORS 13 / 24 ·